Edmund S. Phelps

Introduction

Edmund Phelps, the winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics, is Director of the Center on Capitalism Society at Columbia University. Born in 1933, he spent his childhood in Chicago and, from age six, grew up in Hastings-on Hudson, N.Y. He attended public schools, earned his B.A. from Amherst (1955)got his Ph.D. at Yale (1959). After a stint at RAND, he held positions at Yaleits Cowles Foundation (1960 - 1966), a professorship at Pennfinally at Columbia in 1971. He has written books on growth, unemployment theory, recessions, stagnation, inclusion, rewarding work, dynamism, indigenous innovationthe good economy.

Education

B.A., Amherst College

Ph. D. in Economics, Yale University

Research

Macroeconomics, unemployment inclusive growth, economic growth, business fluctuation, economic dynamism

Publication

1. “Edmund S. Phelps: Interview”, in Roads to Wisdom: Conversations with Ten Nobel Laureates in Economics, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2009.
2. “Entrepreneurship, culture openness,” Edmund Phelps Gylfi Zoega, in Entrepreneurship Openness: Theory Evidence, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc., 2009.
3. “Toward a Model of Innovation Performance Along the Lines of Knight, Keynes, Hayek,M. Polanyí,” in Entrepreneurship, Growth,Public Policy, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
4. “The uncertain direction of the world economy,” in Journal of Policy Modeling, June 2009
5. “Amidst ‘Theory Wars’ in Twentieth Century Economics,” in William BreitBarry T. Hirsch ed., Lives of the Laureates: Twenty three Nobel Economists, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 2009.
6. “Interest rate setting in the presence of investment prospects Knightian uncertainty,”  in Roger E.A. Farmer ed., Macroeconomics in the Smallthe Large, Northampton, MA, Edward Elgar, 2008.
7. “Beware the Smothering of Economic Dynamism”, Forbes, November 10, 2008.
8. “The Good Lifethe Good Economy: The Humanist Perspective of Aristotle, the Pragmatists the Vitalists,the Economic Justice of John Rawls”, in Arguments for a Better World: Essays in Honor of Amartya Sen, ed. Kaushik BasuRavi. Kanbur. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.
9. “Corporatism Keynes: His Philosophy of Growth,” L. PecchiG. Piga, eds., Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998, pages 95104. From the conference Keynes’ General Theory after Seventy Years, Santa Colomba (Siena), July 4, 2006.
10. “How Should Economists Model the Future?” Jean Michel Lasry Damien Fessler (eds.) Finance Sustainable Development: Opposition Partnership? Paris, Economica, 2008.
11. “A Structuralist Model of the Small Open Economy in the Short, MediumLong Run,” with Hian Teck Hoon, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 29, June 2007, pp. 227254.
12. “Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy,” 2006 Nobel Prize Lecture in Economics, American Economic Review, 97, 3, June 2007, 543561;in Les Prix Nobel 2006, Stockholm: May 13, 2007.
13. “The Economic Performance of Nations: Prosperity Depends on Dynamism, Dynamism on Institutions.” Conference on Entrepreneurship, Innovationthe Growth Mechanism of the Free
14. Market Economies. In Eytan Sheshinski, et al, ed., Entrepreneurship, Innovation,the Growth Mechanism of Free Enterprise Economies, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007, 342356.
15. “Understanding the Great Changes in the World:  GainingLosing Ground Since World War II,” CapitalismSociety, 1,2, Article 2 (available at www.bepress.com/cas), September 2006.
16. “Interest Rate Setting in the Presence of Investment Prospects Knightian Uncertainty,” Lecture, Festschrift for Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA, Los Angeles, August 3031, 2006.
17. “Great Catch Ups Fall Backs I Have Seen:Their Misinterpretations,” Lecture, 14th World Congress, International Economic Assn., Marrakech, Sept. 2, 2005. Revised for Irish Economic Association 20th Annual Conference, Bunclody, April 27, 2006.
18. “The Continent’s High Unemployment: Possible Institutional CausesSome Evidence,” Keynote Lecture, Conference on Unemployment in Europe, CESifo, Munich, 12 December 2002. Published in Martin Werding, (ed.), Structural Unemployment in Western Europe: Reasons Remedies, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2006, 5374.
19. “Changing Prospects, Speculative Swings: The Links through Real Asset PricesExchange Rates,” Reykjavik, Conference on SwingsGrowth, 1112 June 2004. Revised version,
20. “Prospective Shifts, Speculative Swings: “Macro” for the TwentyFirst Century in the Tradition Chamiponed by Paul Samuelson” in Michael Szenberg, et al (ed.), Samuelson Economicsthe TwentyFirst Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
21. “La Contre Performance de l’Europe Continentale: Le lien entre institutions, dynamisme et prospérité,” Revue de l’OFCE, 93, April 2005.
22. “Capital Subsidies versus Labor Subsidies: A TradeOff between CapitalEmployment?” with Alberto Petrucci, Journal of Money, CreditBanking, 37, 5, October 2005, 90722.
23. “A Dynamic Theory of the ChinaU.S. Trade: Making Sense of the Imbalances,” with Amar Bhide, Working Paper no. 4, Center on CapitalismSociety, July 2005.
24. “Economic Prosperitythe Dynamism of Economic Institutions,” The Shaw Distinguished Lecture, Singapore, 23 January 2003the Chatham House Lecture, London, 18 March 2003, in W. T. H. KohR. Mariano, eds., The Economic Prospects of Singapore, AddisonWesley/Pearson, Singapore, 2005, 299333.
25. ‘Some notes on monetary unemployment,’ in Willi Semmler (ed), Monetary Policy Unemployment, London: Routledge, 2005, 1619.
26. “The Structuralist Perspective on Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level Employment Path: What Room is Left for Money?” with Hian Teck HoonGylfi Zoega. Conference on Monetary Policythe Labor Market in Honor of James Tobin,” in Willi Semmler, ed., Monetary Policy Unemployment, London: Routledge, 2005, 107132.
27. “Effects of China’s Recent Development in the Rest of the World,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, 89, December 2004, 903910.
28. “Employment, Inflation Sustainable Growth,” Beijing May Conference, Renmin University, May 30, 2004.
29. “The Boomthe Slump: a Causal Account of the 1990s/2000sthe 1920s/1930s.” Given at the Duke/UNC Economic History Conference, Understanding the 1990s: The Economy in LongRun Perspective, 2627 March 2004. Journal of Policy Reform, 7, no. 1, March 2004, 319.
30. “What Structuralism Is –What Errors Omissions of Supply Side RBC Models It Avoids,” in K. Velupillai, ed., The Fitoussi Festschrift, London: Routledge, 2004.
31. “Low Wage Employment Subsidies in a LaborTurnover Model of the ‘Natur Rate’,” with Hian Teck Hoon, Columbia University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper 969705, November 1996, revised November 1997, January 1998. Prepared for the Russell Sage Foundation conference, Policies to Increase PayJobs among Less Advantaged Workers, November 1997. Published in Phelps, ed., Designing Inclusion: Tools to Raise Lowend Pay Employment in Private Enterprise, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
32. “Introduction,” in Phelps, ed., Designing Inclusion: Tools to Raise Lowend PayEmployment in Private Enterprise, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
33. “Reflections on Parts IIIIV,” in Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz Michael Woodford, eds., Knowledge, InformationExpectations: In Honor of Edmund Phelps, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2003, 550563.
34. “Reflections on Parts III,” in Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz Michael Woodford, eds., Knowledge, Information Expectations: In Honor of Edmund Phelps, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2003, 27181.
35. “Asset Prices, the Real Exchange Rate Unemployment in a Small Open Economy: A Medium Run Structuralist Perspective,” in Arie Arnon Warren Young, eds., The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, PresentFuture, Dordrecht Boston, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002.
36. “Income Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts: Hazards to Efficiency, Equity, Employment Growth,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, no. 4, July 2002, 391399.
37. “Balanced Budget Restraint in Taxing Income from Wealth in the Ramsey Model” in InequalityTax Policy, Washington D.C., American Enterprise Institute, 2001.
38. “Structural Booms: Productivity Expectations Asset Valuations,” Economic Policy, CEPR, 32, April 2001, 85126.
39. “Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms Private Sector Forces?” with J.P. Fitoussi, D. JestazG. Zoega, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, 2000, 237311
40. ‘Education the natural rate of unemployment,’ with J. M. OrszagG. Zoega, Oxford Economic Papers, January 2000.
41. ‘Lessons in naturalrate dynamics,’ Oxford Economic Papers, January 2000.
42. “Behind this Structural Boom: the Role of Asset Valuations,” American Economic Review PapersProceedings, 89, May 1999.
43. “Effectiveness of Macropolicies in Small Open Economy Dynamic Aggregative Models,” in Wm. C. Brainard, Wm. D. NordhausH. W. Watts, eds., Money, Macroeconomics,Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of James Tobin, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999.
44. “Moral Hazard Independent Income in a Modern Intertemporal Equilibrium Model of Involuntary Unemployment Mandatory Retirement,” in G. Chichilnisky, ed., Markets, Information Uncertainty, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
45. “Naturalrate theory OECD unemployment,” with Gylfi Zoega, Economic Journal, 108, May 1998, 782801.
46. “The Rise Downward Trend of the Natural Rate,” with Gylfi Zoega, American Economic Review PapersProceedings, 87, May 1997.
47. ‘Growth, wealth the natural rate: Is Europe’s jobs crisis a growth crisis?’ with Hian Teck Hoon, European Economic Review, 41, April 1997.
48. “Payroll TaxesVAT in a LaborTurnover Model of the ‘Natural Rate’,” with HianTeck Hoon, International Tax Public Finance, v. 3, June 1996, 185201.
49. “Fiscal PolicyEconomic Activity in the Neoclassical Theory withwithout Bequests,” with George Kanaginis, Finanz Archiv, 51 (New Series), No. 2, 1994.
50. “Pro Keynesian Counter Keynesian Implications of the Structuralist Theory of Unemployment Interest under the Classic Two‑Sector View of Capital Production,” in Taxation in the United States Europe, Anthonie Knoester, ed., London: Macmillan, 1993. [Also Columbia University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper 494, August 1990.]
51. “Macroeconomic Shocks in a Dynamized Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” with Hian‑Teck Hoon, American Economic Review, v.82 (September 1992).
52. “Consumer Demand Equilibrium Unemployment in a Customer‑Market Incentive‑Wage Economy,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, v.106  (August 1992).
53. “Testing Keynesian Unemployment Theory against Structuralist Theory: Global Evidence from the Past Two Decades,” Issues in Contemporary Economics: Proceedings of the 9th World Congress of the International Economic Association, M. Nerlove, ed., London: Macmillan, 1991
54. A Working Model of Slump Recovery from Disturbances to Capital‑Goods Demand in a Closed Non‑Monetary Economy, International Monetary Fund, Research Department, Working Paper 88/92, August 23, 1988, pp. 16 + fig., in Edward J. NellWilli Semmler, eds., Nicholas Kaldor Mainstream Economics, London: Macmillan, 1991.
55. “The Effects of Productivity, Total GDP Demand,Incentive Wages on Unemployment in a Non‑Monetary Customer‑Market Model of the Small Open Economy,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 92, 2 (March 1990).
56. “Fiscal Stimulus Employment at HomeAbroad in a Real Two‑Country Customer‑Market Model,” Rivista di Politica Economica, v. 79 December 1989, 157‑181.
57. “New Channels in the Transmission of Foreign Shocks,” in Guillermo Calvo, Ronald Findlayothers, eds., Debt, Stabilization Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Diaz‑Alejandro. Oxford: Blackwell, 1989.
58. “A Working Model of Slump Recovery from Disturbances to Capital‑Goods Demand in an Open Non‑Monetary Economy,” American Economic Review PapersProceedings, v. 78, no. 2 (May 1988).
59. Optimum Fiscal Policy When Monetary Policy is Bound by a Rule, with K. Velupillai, in K.J. ArrowM.J. Boskin, eds., The Economics of Public Debt, (Macmillan, 1988, for the International Economics Association: London).
60. Causes of the 1980s Slump in Europe, with J.P. Fitoussi, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 16, No. 2 (December 1986); trans.adapted, "Politique economique aux Etats‑Unis et croissance du chomage en Europe," Observations et diognostics economiques, No. 18, January 1987.
61. The Effectiveness of Macropolicies in a Small Open‑Economy Dynamic Aggregative Model, Discussion Paper No. 63, Banca dItalia, May 1986; published in Money, Macroeconomics,Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of James Tobin, Wm. C. Brainard, W. D. Nordhaus,H. W. Watts, eds., Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1991.
62. Profits TheoryProfits Taxation, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 33, December 1986.
63. The Significance of Customer Markets for the Effects of Budgetary Policy in Open Economies, International Institute for Economic Studies, Seminar Paper No. 315, University of Stockholm. Published, Annales dEnomomie et de Statistique, Vol. 1, No. 3 (September 1986). IIES Reprint Series No. 330.
64. The Trouble with Rational Expectationsthe Problem of Inflation Stabilization, in R. FrydmanE.S. Phelps, eds., Individual ForecastingAggregate Outcomes: Rational Expectations Examined (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
65. Implicit Contractsthe Social Contract in R. DornbuschM.E. Simonson, eds., Inflation, DebtIndexation, (Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 1983).
66. Cracks on the Demand Side: A Year of Crisis in Theoretical Macro economics, American Economic Review PapersProceedings, May 1982.
67. A Model of Non‑Walrasian General Equilibrium: Its Pareto InoptimalityPareto Improvement, with Guillermo .A. Calvo. Presented at the Columbia‑Yale‑Brookings Conference in Memory of Arthur M. Okun, September 1981. Published in James Tobin, ed., Macroeconomics, PricesQuantities: Essays in Memory of Arthur M. Okun (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1983).
68. Introduction: Taxation, Redistribution Growth, in E.S. Phelps, Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Volume 2, Redistribution Growth (New York: Academic Press, 1980).
69. Introduction: Developments in Non‑Walrasian Theory, in E.S. Phelps, Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Vol 1, EmploymentInflation (New York: Academic Press, 1979).
70. On the Concept of Optimal Taxation in the Overlapping‑Generations Model of Economic Growth, with J.A. Ordover, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 12 (August 1979)
71. Obstacles to Curtailing Inflation, Essays in Post‑Keynesian Inflation, J.H. GapinskiC.E. Rockwood,eds., (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Pub. Co., 1979).
72. Disinflation without Recession: Adaptive Guideposts Monetary Policy, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. Bank 114 (December 1978).
73. Trans‑National Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a  TwoCountry Model of Dynamic Equilibrium, Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplementary Volume 7 of the Carnegie Rochester Series on Public Policy, NorthHolland Pub. Co., 1978.
74. Inflation Planning Reconsidered, Economica, Vol. 45 (May 1978).
75. CommoditySupply Shock Full Employment Monetary Policy, Journal of  oney, CreditBanking, Vol. 10 (May 1978).
76. “Rawlsian Growth: Dynamic Programming of Capital Wealth for Intergeneration Maximin Justice,” with J.G. Riley, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 45 (February 1978).
77. Indexation Issues: Comments on Fische rBlinder, Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplementary Volume 5 of the Carnegie Rochester Series on Public Policy, Stabilization of the Domestic International Economy, North Holland Pub. Co., 1977;"Appendix: Employment‑Contingent Wage Contracts," with G. A. Calvo, idem. 149167
78. “Recent Development in Welfare Economics: Justice et Equite,” in M.D. Intrillagator, ed., Frontiers of Quantitative Economics, Vol. III (Amsterdam: North‑Holland Publishing Co., 1977)
79. “Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations,” with J.B. Taylor, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85 (February 1977).
80. “Linear Maximin Taxation of WageProperty Income on a "Maximin Growth Path,” in B.A. BalassaR.R. Nelson, eds., Economic Progress, Private ValuesPublic Policy: Essays in Honor of William Fellner (Amsterdam: North‑Holland, 1976).
81. “Social Policy Uncertain Careers: Beyond Rawlss Paradigm Case," in R.E.Grieson, ed., UrbanPublic Economics: Essays in Honor of William Vickrey (Boston: Lexington Books, 1976).
82. “Linear Taxation of WealthWages for Intergenerational Lifetime Justice: Some Steady‑State Cases,” with J.A. Ordover, American Economic Review, Vol 65 (September 1975).
83. Stopover Monetarism: SupplyDemand Factors in the 1972‑74 Inflation, in D. Meiselman, ed. The Phenomenon of Worldwide Inflation, (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C. 1974); also in The Japan ‑ U.S. Assembly; Proceedings of a Conference on Japan ‑ U.S. Economic Policy (AEI, Washington, D.C., 1975).
84. The Indeterminacy of GameEquilibrium Growth in the Absence of an Ethic, in E.S. Phelps, ed., Altruism, MoralityEconomic Theory (New York: Basic Books, 1975).
85. Comment (on D.F.Gordon), Journal of Money, CreditBanking, supplement, Vol. 6, (The Phillips CurveLabor Markets), 1976
86. Taxation of Wage Income for Economic Justice, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 87 (August 1973); reprinted in E.S.Phelps, ed., Economic Justice (Harmondworth: Penguin, 1974).
87. Comment (On Stein/Infante), Journal of Money, CreditBanking, Vol. 5, No. 1, Pt. 2 (February 1973).
88. Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance, Swedish Journal of Economics (formerly Ekonomisk Tidschrift), Vol. 2 (New Series), No. 1 (January‑March 1973).
89. Some Macroeconomics of Population Leveling, Proceedings of the U. S. Commission on Population Growththe American Future, 1972.
90. “The Statistical Theory of RacismSexism,” American Economic Review, Vol. 62 (December 1972); reprinted in Alice Amsden, ed., The Economics of WomenWork (Penguin, 1980).
91. Money, Public Expenditurethe Labor Supply, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 5 (August 1972).
92. “Inflation ExpectationsEconomic Theory,” in N. SwanD. Wilton, eds., Inflationthe  Canadian Experience, Kingston, Ontario: Industrial Relation Centre, Queens University, 1971, pp. 31‑47.
93. “Money, Public Debt,InflationReal Interest,” with E. Burmeister, Journal of Money CreditBanking, Vol. 3 (May 1971).
94. Optimal Price Policy under Atomistic Competition, with S. G. Winter Jr., in E. S. Phelps, et al., Microeconomic Foundations of EmploymentInflation Theory, New York: Norton, 1970.
95. “Public Debt, TaxationCapital Intensiveness,” with K. Shell, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 1 (October 1969).
96. “Population Increase, Reply,” (to J. Isbister), Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 2 (August 1969)
97. “On Short Run EmploymentReal Wage Rate Under Market‑Clearing Commodity Price,” International Economic Review, Vol. 10 (June 1969).
98. “The New Microeconomics in InflationEmployment Theory,” American Economic Review: PapersProceedings, Vol. 59 (May 1969); revised version in E.S. Phelps et al., Microeconomic Foundations of EmploymentInflation Theory, New York: Norton, 1970.
99. “The Optimal Rate of Growth of Money: Comment,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76 (August 1968, Part 2).
100. “Money‑Wage DynamicsLabor‑Market Equilibrium,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76 (August 1968, Part 2); an altered version in E. S. Phelps, et al., Microeconomic Foundations of EmploymentInflation Theory, (New York: Norton, 1970), reprinted in P.G. KorlirasR.S. Thorn, eds., Modern Macroeconomics (New York, HarperRow, 1979).
101. “Population Increase,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 35 (August 1968).
102. “Phillips Curves, Expectations of InflationOptimal Unemployment over Time: Reply (to J.W. Williamson),” Economica, Vol. 35 (August 1968).
103. “On Second‑Best National SavingGame‑Equilibrium Growth,” with R.A. Pollak, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 35 (April 1968).
104. “Phillips Curves, Expectations of InflationOptimal Unemployment over Time,” Economica, Vol. 34 (August 1967)
105. “A Model of Induced Invention, GrowthDistribution,” with E.M. Drandakis, Economic Journal, Vol. 76 (December 1966).
106. “Investments in Humans, Technological DiffusionEconomic Growth,” with R.R. Nelson, American Economic Review: PapersProceedings, Vol. 56 (May 1966), reprinted in R.A. Wykstra, ed., Human Capital FormationManpower Development (New York, Free Press, 1971).
107. Models of Technical Progressthe Golden Rule of Research, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 33 (April 1966).
108. “Factor Price Frontier Estimation of a Vintage Production Model of the Postwar U.S. Non‑Farm Business Sector,” with C. D. Phelps, Review of EconomicsStatistics, Vol. 48 (August 1966).
109. “Second Essay on the Golden Rule of Accumulation,” American Economic Review  Vol. 55 (September 1965).
110. “Anticipated InflationEconomic Welfare,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 73 (February 1965).
111. “The New View of Investment: Reply (to R.C.O. Matthews),” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 78 (February 1964).
112. “Substitution, Fixed Proportions, Growth,Distribution,” International Economic Review, Vol. 4 ( September 1963).
113. “The Golden Rule of Accumulation: Reply (to I.F.Pearce),” American Economic Review, Vol. 52 (December 1962).
114. “The New View of Investment: A Neoclassical Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 76 (November 1962); reprinted in J.E. StiglitzH. Uzawa, eds., Readings in the Theory of Economic Growth (M.I.T. Press, 1969).
115. The Accumulation of Risky Capital: A Sequential Utility Analysis, Econometrica, Vol. 30 (October 1962); reprinted in D.H. HesterJ. Tobin, eds., Risk AversionPortfolio Choice (Wiley, 1968); J.L. BickslerP.A. Samuelson, eds., Investment Portfolio DecisionMaking (Lexington Books, 1974).
116. “The Golden Rule of Accumulation: A Fable for Growthmen,” American Economic Review, vol. 51 (September 1961); reprinted in A.K. Sen, ed., Readings in Economic Growth Theory (Penguin, 1969)other anthologies. Trans.: Hungarian, Japanese.
117. “A Test for the Presence of Cost Inflation in the U.S.Economy 1955‑57,” Yale Economic Essays, Vol.1 (January 1961).